tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.comments2011-08-07T16:03:58.814-04:00Don't Bring In The LeftyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-85685334402965677032011-08-07T16:03:58.814-04:002011-08-07T16:03:58.814-04:00That's a really good and important question. ...That's a really good and important question. You can only do so much with labels, and the labels don't tell you anything about the movement/velocity variance of a pitch type (which if I'm getting you right, you're essentially talking about the variance within a pitch type name, like slider, curve, change, etc). I haven't seen extensive research on it (hopefully I haven't missed it), and it's certainly something that should be done.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-87503418579336357572011-08-07T01:55:28.102-04:002011-08-07T01:55:28.102-04:00Have you ever written on the question of how accur...Have you ever written on the question of how accurately the pitch categories describe the variety of pitches thrown? In other words, are sliders more alike than they are like changeups or hard curveballs? A statistical technique called factor analysis could be a useful tool.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-31090217616790816352011-07-04T09:16:06.560-04:002011-07-04T09:16:06.560-04:00There certainly are; it depends on how you want to...There certainly are; it depends on how you want to define "pressure situation." The way I'd typically think about a pressure situation is within a game; by this definition, a higher-pressure situation indicates one where the game's action most directly affects win expectancy (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations/ is a cool step-by-step way of looking at this). If we define leverage that way, Greinke has a drastic split (2.40 career ERA in 510 "low" leverage innings, 4.37 in 593 2/3 "medium" innings, 11.02 ERA in 72 2/3 "high" innings), though I'd like to see more high leverage innings pitched before saying too much about it. You could also define it as big within a season, which might indicate a playoff game (no playoff games for Greinke yet) or a game in a high-profile city (New York!). Greinke has struggled in New York over 18 1/3 innings (11.29 ERA), but again, I'd feel very uncomfortable using those 18 1/3 innings to make a judgment on Greinke's character. Remember, CC Sabathia also struggled against the Yankees and in the playoffs, and that doesn't seem to mean anything now. It's just very difficult to measure emotional/mental toughness because there are so many other variables (and certainly, a lot of it is random) that affect the outcomes we're looking at.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-51888924223937160962011-07-03T14:35:37.917-04:002011-07-03T14:35:37.917-04:00My understanding is that ZG's performance '...My understanding is that ZG's performance 'under the spotlight' has been questioned. Is there a way to compare his performances looking at low pressure versus high pressure conditions?NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-80066300172198568222011-06-03T00:04:12.154-04:002011-06-03T00:04:12.154-04:00Yup, especially with sliders. One could speculate...Yup, especially with sliders. One could speculate that he's reluctant to tell Joe something, but ... that's just speculation. I'll be curious to hear some postgame quotes.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-11098132771191966642011-06-02T22:31:49.376-04:002011-06-02T22:31:49.376-04:00Giving up pitches suggests that throwing the pitch...Giving up pitches suggests that throwing the pitch hurts or is uncomfortable.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-18434533689315186112011-06-02T02:58:06.720-04:002011-06-02T02:58:06.720-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.cheaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02347393659153900099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-27469379869867057332011-05-28T23:09:45.204-04:002011-05-28T23:09:45.204-04:00Not likely; his mechanics are fine. He mostly has...Not likely; <a href="http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/potd-michael-pinedas-throwing-motion" rel="nofollow">his mechanics are fine</a>. He mostly has amazing stuff because he's huge.Rob Harrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13744370123241743193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-53276401992106554712011-05-28T21:28:24.122-04:002011-05-28T21:28:24.122-04:00Do you think he is putting unusual strain on his a...Do you think he is putting unusual strain on his arm? These young pitchers with amazing stuff seem to end up on the DL sooner rather than later.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-56099257604360828792010-11-23T00:14:24.298-05:002010-11-23T00:14:24.298-05:00http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/18/182267...http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/18/1822678/king-felixs-2010Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-60844755582087418532010-11-20T19:32:08.791-05:002010-11-20T19:32:08.791-05:00Excellent analysis! I hope it gets widely distrib...Excellent analysis! I hope it gets widely distributed.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-19120178809419428892010-11-13T09:05:15.090-05:002010-11-13T09:05:15.090-05:00Posted to Beyond the Box Score yesterday and was t...Posted to Beyond the Box Score yesterday and was then wonderfully snazzified by BtB's new manager, Justin Bopp:<br /><br />http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/12/1809639/2010-pitch-timesLucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-75387804939963621852010-10-07T22:24:01.957-04:002010-10-07T22:24:01.957-04:00Good for you - making a comment prior to the game ...Good for you - making a comment prior to the game rather than second guessing.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-38060931195587661542010-08-11T00:26:34.833-04:002010-08-11T00:26:34.833-04:00Exactly. Obviously, he could get hurt at any time...Exactly. Obviously, he could get hurt at any time. That's why I don't think it's wise to make any judgments about the trajectory of his career; same with any other young pitcher. What we can do is take a look at what he has right now, and what he has right now is off-the-charts stuff that few other starters possess.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-44531029293975422732010-08-10T22:18:05.073-04:002010-08-10T22:18:05.073-04:00I hope you will be posting about him a lot in the ...I hope you will be posting about him a lot in the future. As you know, I saw both Kerry Wood and Mark Prior enter the league with unbelievable arms, only to quickly succumb to injury. Let's wish the new phenom a long and healthy career.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-85214651395469907662010-08-10T10:11:25.045-04:002010-08-10T10:11:25.045-04:00I'd rephrase: even though I have some problems...I'd rephrase: even though I have some problems with it, Game Score is a good way of getting a baseline for how a pitcher pitched.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-19729445416410172582010-08-10T00:09:55.700-04:002010-08-10T00:09:55.700-04:00Is there a metric describing quality of pitching p...Is there a metric describing quality of pitching performance that you prefer?NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-42052294438123685282010-08-09T10:42:18.545-04:002010-08-09T10:42:18.545-04:00Here is the calculation of Game Score, from its Wi...Here is the calculation of Game Score, from its Wiki page:<br /><br />Start with 50 points.<br />Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.<br />Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.<br />Add 1 point for each strikeout.<br />Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.<br />Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.<br />Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.<br />Subtract 1 point for each walk.<br /><br />It's not my favorite because the weighting of each outcome is pretty arbitrary. There's no distinction between types of hits, as the little groundball single that Morrow allowed was worth as much as a hypothetical triple hit 400 feet. Also, I don't like how walks are only worth -1 point, since an unintentional walk reflects what the pitcher himself was unable to do, while hits allowed tend to have more to do with the quality of the batter than the quality of the pitcher (in most cases; obviously, hanging sliders down the middle tend to get crushed more than pitches on the black). It's not that I think it's that bad of a metric as a way of a gauging an outing, but there's a level of preciseness that it doesn't have.<br />Hope that helped.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-7364138973642306902010-08-08T22:11:49.608-04:002010-08-08T22:11:49.608-04:00Thank you for alerting me to the rarity of Morrow&...Thank you for alerting me to the rarity of Morrow's performance. I do not know how the Game Score statistic is calculated. Do you know? Also, why are you not a fan of that statistic?NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-63929699333318945862010-08-08T12:30:20.374-04:002010-08-08T12:30:20.374-04:00My pleasure!My pleasure!Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-4472002672423960732010-08-07T08:16:51.185-04:002010-08-07T08:16:51.185-04:00Fascinating! Looking at the scatterplot with outl...Fascinating! Looking at the scatterplot with outliers makes me imagine looking out at the pitcher from the batter's box, focusing on the empty point in space from where the ball will soon emerge. Thank you, LAA.NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-27787614322336290372010-05-22T09:06:25.419-04:002010-05-22T09:06:25.419-04:00I'd really doubt it. Chamberlain was hitting ...I'd really doubt it. Chamberlain was hitting his spots yesterday (perfectly placed fastball to strike out Wright looking) and got some nasty swings on the slider. Rivera's command is a little bit off, but I'm not too concerned about it yet. Also, the velocity's been there. We'll see how they progress over the next few days.Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-69918723871827160172010-05-19T20:22:41.232-04:002010-05-19T20:22:41.232-04:00Do you think Chamberlain or Rivera is hurt?Do you think Chamberlain or Rivera is hurt?NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-34502759798441921192010-05-18T15:29:17.394-04:002010-05-18T15:29:17.394-04:00How did I leave that out?!How did I leave that out?!Lucas Apostolerishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15866892828302392185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2446990813792736752.post-75905868160532173572010-05-18T00:40:35.716-04:002010-05-18T00:40:35.716-04:00What happened?What happened?NHAPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916405686406776411noreply@blogger.com