Win distributions for innings pitched and ERA

This article by Dave Allen got me thinking about something really simple.  If you took all games by starters over the past ten years and grouped them by a particular number of innings pitched, how many wins do they end up with?  It gave me an excuse to do a distribution:

Since 2001, there has only been one pitcher to win 20 games in fewer than 200 innings.  That was Pedro Martinez in 2002, and he just barely made it (199 1/3 innings).  The pitchers that won the fewest games with at least 200 innings pitched were Tanyon Sturtze in 2002 and Wayne Franklin in 2004, who both won only 4 games.  


In addition, here is the win distribution for the specific criteria that Allen mentioned in the article, 200 innings pitched with an ERA under 4:




Like Allen mentioned, the average pitcher that meets these requirements wins an average of 15 games.  Randy Johnson won 24 in 2002, which was the same year that both Curt Schilling and Barry Zito won 23.  At the "unlucky" end of the spectrum are Brandon Webb in 2004 and Matt Cain in 2007; they both had only 7 wins.

Pitcher Comparisons: Pedro Martinez vs A.J. Burnett

World Series Game 2 was a very good game. It marked Pedro Martinez’s return to Yankee Stadium (or, more accurately, the return of the “who’s your daddy” chant, since this was Pedro’s first game in the New Yankee Stadium). It also marked what could be considered A.J. Burnett’s “defining moment as a Yankee,” as he pitched 7 brilliant innings when his team needed him most. Martinez pitched well, but Burnett pitched better. Here are the pitcher line scores from yesterday:

Pedro Martinez: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 8K, 54 Game Score
A.J. Burnett: 7 IP, 4 H, R, ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 72 Game Score

Although Burnett was more effective, the two actually pitched quite similarly. Here are pitch results from Burnett, who mixed his “power curveball” in with a combination of four-seam fastballs and two-seam fastballs. I classified two of his pitches as changeups, although it’s possible that they were just two seamers with slightly less velocity.

	Pitch#	Pitch%	Swing%	Whiff%	IWZ%	Chase%	Watch%
FF	25	23.4%	32%	0%	60%	12.5%	53%
FT	35	32.7%	45.7%	25%	77.1%	31.3%	48.1%
CU	45	42.1%	37.8%	41.2%	17.8%	70.6%	37.5%
CH	2	1.9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	107	99.1%	38.3%	26.8%	46.7%	43.9%	48%

Martinez worked with a four-seamer, changeup, slider, and curveball. He threw a fifth pitch that looked kind of like it was somewhere between his changeup and fastball, both in terms of velocity and movement. I classified it as a two-seam fastball.

	Pitch#	Pitch%	Swing%	Whiff%	IWZ%	Chase%	Watch%
FF	47	43.9%	31.9%	66.7%	55.3%	26.7%	57.7%
FT	9	8.4%	44.4%	0%	44.4%	50%	50%
CH	22	20.6%	63.6%	50%	40.9%	42.9%	11.1%
SL	16	15%	50%	0%	62.5%	0%	20%
CU	13	12.1%	61.5%	25%	30.8%	75%	50%
	107	100%	45.6%	20.4%	49.5%	36.7%	41.5%

Burnett had the better whiff and chase rates, which makes sense considering he’s more of a strikeout guy than Pedro is these days. Pedro was able to miss bats as well, just not to the extent that Burnett could. Pitch movement data and graphs from both pitchers:

Pedro Martinez

Pitch	Average Speed	Max Speed	Pfx_x	Pfx_z
FF	88.3	90.7	-6.54	8.2
FT	84.53	85.7	-9.58	2.83
CH	76.05	79.1	-11.91	0.38
SL	79.73	81.7	2.7	2.43
CU	71.22	73.8	9.39	-8.75

A.J. Burnett

Pitch	Average Speed	Max Speed	Pfx_x	Pfx_z
FF	93.74	96	-6.72	8.22
FT	93.57	96.2	-10.21	3.38
CU	82.33	84.7	5.68	-6.95
CH	90.35	90.5	-8.99	3.18

It was an impressive performance from both pitchers. Pedro was able to mix up his pitches well enough to keep the Yankees off-balance, even without having nearly as much velocity as Burnett. But, as I said, Burnett was better, and so the World Series will head to Philadelphia tied one game apiece.