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I figured that with live baseball starting up again this weekend (!!), now would be a good time to pull out this graph:
That's the relationship between spring winning percentage and regular season winning percentage (with data going back to 2003). It's not very strong. Yes, some of the best teams had good springs and some of the worst teams had bad springs, but if you look at the overall picture, it means nothing. But you knew that already. These teams deviated the most from their spring training winning percentage:
Team | Year | Spring Winning% | Winning% | Difference |
Dodgers | 2004 | .364 | .574 | .210 |
Phillies | 2004 | .323 | .531 | .208 |
Red Sox | 2006 | .328 | .531 | .203 |
Rangers | 2010 | .362 | .556 | .194 |
Dodgers | 2009 | .405 | .586 | .181 |
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Indians | 2010 | .732 | .426 | -.306 |
Royals | 2006 | .667 | .383 | -.284 |
Marlins | 2006 | .732 | .481 | -.251 |
Mariners | 2004 | .638 | .389 | -.249 |
Brewers | 2009 | .734 | .494 | -.240 |
Data are from ESPN.com.