Opening Day f/x: Verlander and Sabathia

Happy Opening Day, everybody!  The Yankees will face Detroit at home this afternoon in a match-up of two elite pitchers - Justin Verlander for the Tigers and CC Sabathia for the Yanks.

JUSTIN VERLANDER 

	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z
FF	95.6	-8.0	+9.7
CU	79.7	+6.9	-6.6
CH	85.9	-10.6	+5.3
SL	87.5	+1.5	+3.8

(Pitch movement and velocity is from road games only to strip out home park biases.  The four-seam fastball group may include a few two-seamers as well.) 

The first thing to know about Verlander is that he throws heat.  Intense heat, and lots of it.  He was second among starters in average velocity behind Ubaldo Jimenez.  Also, his four-seam fastball was thrown more than any other pitch in the majors last year save for Clayton Kershaw's four-seamer.  It also gets a ton of movement, tailing an average of 8 inches into a right handed batter with nearly 10 inches of positive vertical movement (relative to a theoretical spinless pitch).  While he uses his heater and power curveball the most, his changeup might actually be his most effective pitch.  Or his slider.  

	#	%	Swing Rate	Whiff Rate	Zone Rate	Ball Rate	Chase Rate	Watch Rate	RV/100	xRV/100
FF	2178	.587	.503	.161	.460	.315	.358	.326	-0.38	-0.43
CU	722	.195	.291	.229	.445	.438	.190	.583	-1.21	-0.79
CH	552	.149	.518	.343	.333	.366	.394	.234	-2.45	-0.47
SL	259	.070	.541	.357	.452	.309	.444	.342	-2.36	-2.21
	3717		.467	.215	.437	.346	.338	.367	-0.96	-0.61

	In Play	GB Rate	FB Rate	LD Rate	PU Rate	wOBAcon	HR/FB
FF	394	.363	.288	.236	.114	.366	.108
CU	84	.590	.217	.145	.048	.275	.000
CH	105	.461	.255	.186	.098	.221	.000
SL	40	.474	.184	.184	.158	.257	.143
	624	.416	.266	.213	.105	.323	.080

Despite all the heat, his fastball garners a league-average whiff rate, and his curve is below average.  He'll fool a lot of batters with it in the zone, though.  The changeup and slider look like good pitches.  The slider, which can get cutter-ish at times, is a relatively new addition to Justin's repertoire.

CC SABATHIA

	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z
FF	94.1	+4.4	+9.0
FT	93.0	+9.4	+7.2
CH	86.9	+8.4	+7.0
SL	81.6	-2.4	-0.9
CU	77.4	-3.2	-1.9

Sabathia works with a five-pitch mix - four and two-seam fastballs, a slurvey slider, a changeup, and a rare curveball.  The changeup is pretty hard, about seven miles per hour on average off of his 94 mph four-seamer.  The slider, on the other hand, is pretty slow, sitting in the low 80s with a significant amount of "drop."  The curve pretty much just looks like a slower slider. 

	#	%	Swing Rate	Whiff Rate	Zone Rate	Ball Rate	Chase Rate	Watch Rate	RV/100	xRV/100
FF	1585	.450	.423	.140	.470	.368	.260	.393	-1.08	-0.73
FT	565	.161	.510	.139	.515	.356	.318	.309	+0.88	-0.51
CH	604	.172	.593	.296	.450	.321	.434	.213	-1.92	-1.17
SL	543	.154	.523	.405	.390	.344	.453	.368	-3.91	-2.91
CU	222	.063	.131	.207	.550	.090	.482	.836	+0.82	+0.12
	3547		.462	.220	.467	.363	.324	.379	-1.15	-1.02

	In Play	GB Rate	FB Rate	LD Rate	PU Rate	wOBAcon	HR/FB
FF	291	.460	.260	.173	.107	.323	.107
FT	145	.593	.221	.143	.043	.395	.161
CH	159	.546	.276	.105	.072	.285	.095
SL	73	.569	.208	.111	.111	.222	.000
CU	13	.154	.538	.154	.154	.498	.000
	689	.510	.257	.145	.088	.325	.098

The slider is elite (one of the top 20 pitches in whiff rate for 2010 starters) and the changeup is still very good, though it's easier to hit than it was last year (2009 whiff rate ~40%).  The curve is pretty much only used to steal a called strike early in the count.  Both fastballs generate a good batted-ball profile, including plenty of grounders.  

Let's raise a glass (of white grape juice) to an awesome year of baseball in 2011!