Sox f/x I: John Lackey

The winless Red Sox (I can't believe it either) are set to host the Yankees for a three game set starting this afternoon.  John Lackey will get the ball for the Bostonians against Phil Hughes's pinstripers.  Lackey has a pretty standard five-pitch repertoire, and they add up to a pretty average profile all the way around - compare here.  (pitch movement data from 2010 road games only)  

	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z
Fastball	91.1	-3.3	+9.0
Sinker	90.3	-7.8	+5.8
Curveball	79.3	+5.2	-4.6
Slider	83.9	+2.6	+0.4
Changeup	84.2	-6.9	+6.3

	#	%	RHB%	LHB%	Swing	Whiff	Zone	Chase	Watch	Ball	RV/100	xRV/100
Fastball	1812	.507	.519	.497	.412	.123	.448	.260	.401	.366	-0.18	+0.23
Sinker	301	.084	.082	.086	.495	.094	.372	.365	.286	.352	+2.75	+1.41
Curveball	728	.204	.148	.247	.446	.200	.466	.316	.404	.346	+0.47	-0.45
Slider	523	.146	.226	.084	.497	.358	.413	.366	.301	.379	-0.66	-1.32
Changeup	211	.059	.025	.085	.460	.206	.355	.324	.293	.450	-0.79	+0.88
	3583				.441	.180	.435	.300	.375	.369	+0.17	+0.04

	GB Rate	FB Rate	LD Rate	PU Rate	HR/FB	wOBAcon
Fastball	.351	.334	.224	.091	.068	.360
Sinker	.440	.293	.240	.027	.182	.446
Curveball	.563	.212	.179	.046	.094	.365
Slider	.530	.152	.174	.043	.143	.374
Changeup	.561	.195	.195	.049	.000	.260
	.458	.268	.209	.066	.089	.370

The sinker and changeup are pretty rare.  Lackey seems to favor the slider against righties and the curve against lefties; the slider, which is typically in the mid 80s and can sometimes look like a cutter, looks like Lackey's best pitch and is the only one with a whiff rate above the league average.  Here's how Lackey breaks down in each count:

Hitters will see a steady diet of four-seamers in all counts.  The curve is thrown a lot, too; Lackey uses it both behind in the count and in strikeout situations.   

Lackey still has pretty good control (3 walks per 9 last year compared to 2.7 for his career), but will need to rediscover his swing-and-miss stuff (K/9 and whiff rates hadn't been so low since 2002) to turn back into the pitcher he was with the Angels.