Sox f/x III: Josh Beckett

With the series tied up at one game apiece, the Yankees will turn to their current ace, CC Sabathia, and the Red Sox will turn to their former ace, Josh Beckett, tomorrow at 8 on ESPN (more national TV!).  Beckett still has great stuff, but he's been hit hard recently (solid peripherals, but a 5.78 ERA in 2010).  He throws the same five pitches as Clay Buchholz.  Take a look:

	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z
Fastball	93.2	-6.9	+9.0
Sinker	93.1	-9.9	+5.2
Curveball	75.7	+7.0	-7.5
Cutter	90.3	+0.7	+5.6
Changeup	87.6	-8.8	+2.5

Beckett gets less drop and velocity on the curve than Buchholz, and some extra tail and sink on the sinker.  The biggest difference is the changeup - Buchholz's is slow and straight, while Beckett's just looks like a sinker with some velocity taken off.  Generic pitch results:

	#	%	RHB%	LHB%	Swing	Whiff	Zone	Chase	Watch	Ball	RV/100	xRV/100
Fastball	801	.379	.331	.411	.439	.139	.472	.255	.354	.356	+1.18	-0.82
Sinker	340	.161	.187	.143	.453	.123	.435	.313	.365	.388	+1.10	+0.46
Curveball	385	.182	.226	.153	.348	.291	.384	.257	.507	.436	+0.32	+0.09
Cutter	347	.164	.207	.136	.602	.273	.435	.443	.216	.308	-0.12	-1.31
Changeup	242	.114	.050	.158	.459	.306	.339	.313	.256	.434	+0.14	+0.74
	2142				.455	.205	.433	.304	.347	.377	+0.73	-0.28

	GB Rate	FB Rate	LD Rate	PU Rate	HR/FB	wOBAcon
Fastball	.444	.375	.153	.028	.148	.479
Sinker	.513	.167	.244	.077	.154	.392
Curveball	.491	.200	.255	.055	.182	.400
Cutter	.426	.265	.191	.118	.167	.439
Changeup	.523	.250	.182	.045	.182	.315
	.467	.278	.197	.058	.164	.425

Beckett struck out over 8 men per 9 innings last year despite lacking a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch (though the cutter is impressive adjusted for pitch type - the average cutter has a whiff rate of around 21%).  The chart below shows Beckett's pitch selection last year in each count.  Hitters see plenty of curveballs in strikeout situations:

Overall: he got burned once the ball was in play last year (high wOBAcon, HR/FB, and RV-xRV), but he has some quality stuff.  His cutter, in particular, looks good.  He can probably still be quite effective this year if he stays healthy and has some more luck.